Projecting the Winners – 2024 Awards Season Undercard

The actual Oscar Blitz is off for a few more days, but that doesn’t mean my fingers get a night off. We’re but a week from the Academy Awards, and in most years, we’d already have all the information needed to make an educated guess at the results.

That’s sort of the case this year, but with one major exception. Because of the guild strikes last year, the nomination process for the Writers Guild of America was delayed. And in an extreme rarity (possibly even a first), the WGA Awards will not be handed out before the Academy has their say. Instead, they’ll have their ceremony a full month later, on April 14.

Sometimes I do a recap of Awards Season, sometimes I don’t. It feels necessary this time for two main reasons. One is that the WGA won’t enter into the equation this time, potentially complicating manners when it comes to predicting the screenplay categories for the Oscars. The second is that for the first time ever, I had a vote in one of the major ceremonies. I can’t reveal what my vote was, but I can hint, so it adds a degree of fun.

So with essentially 95% of precincts reporting, we might as well take a look at who’s picked up hardware so far. It might even give you some advance hints for your own Oscars p0ol, as I won’t be releasing my Predictions video until later in the week.

First, the nominees for the the one biggie we won’t have results for.

76th Writers Guild of America Awards – April 14
Original Screenplay
Air
Barbie
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives

Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Killers of the Flower Moon
Nyad
Oppenheimer

Documentary
Bella!
It Ain’t Over!
The Pigeon Tunnel
Stamped from the Beginning

There are two big takeaways here. The first is that Barbie is up for Original Screenplay instead of Adapted. There’s been much hullabaloo over this issue, but it makes sense here. The Academy has different rules than the WGA for what constitutes an adaptation. This is also why Air is up for Original. Both are about products, but in the guild’s eyes, using that license doesn’t count. The second is the Best Picture nominees that are missing. Two are easily explained, as The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall are foreign films and thus not eligible. However, the omission of Poor Things raises an eyebrow. With Oppenheimer as the presumed front-runner for the top prize, the Academy will seek to give out as many consolation prizes to the other nominees as possible. Could this mean it’s out of the running for Adapted Screenplay? It’s hard to tell, but it’s interesting.

39th Independent Spirit Awards (* – Denotes I did not vote for the winner)
Best Feature – Past Lives*
Best Director – Celine Song – Past Lives
Best Lead Performance – Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Best Supporting Performance – Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Best Breakthrough Performance – Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers
Best Screenplay – American Fiction
Best First Feature – A Thousand and One
Best First Screenplay – May December*
Best Documentary Feature – Four Daughters
Best International Film – Anatomy of a Fall*
Best Cinematography – The Holdovers
Best Editing – How to Blow Up a Pipeline

It was a lot of fun getting to watch the nominees, as well as several International Feature submissions that didn’t make the shortlist or get a commercial release stateside. That alone was worth the membership fee to join Film Independent. The fact that I got a vote was just a bonus. I will definitely be making more use of this in the future.

30th Screen Actors Guild Awards
Best Actor – Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Best Actress – Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Best Cast – Oppenheimer
Best Stunt Cast – Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

This pretty much solidifies three of the four acting categories, with only Best Actress being left in question. It’s been a VERY tight race between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone this Awards Season. This win certainly is a boost for Gladstone, and I think makes her the favorite as we approach the finish line, but it’s not a guarantee.

76th Directors Guild of America Awards
Feature Film – Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Documentary – Mstyslav Chernow – 20 Days in Mariupol
First-Time Feature Film – Celine Song – Past Lives

If it wasn’t obvious that Christopher Nolan was finally getting his Oscar, this should seal the deal in your head. He’s swept Awards Season with the exception of the Spirits, because Oppenheimer wasn’t eligible. That result, plus the First-Time category here, only serve to prove my point that Celine Song should be up for Best Director at the Oscars (as well as Greta Gerwig) instead of Justine Triet and Jonathan Glazer.

35th Producers Guild of America Awards
Theatrical Motion Picture – Oppenheimer
Animated Theatrical Motion Picture – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Theatrical Motion Picture – American Symphony

From here we can assume that two categories are locks – Best Picture and Animated Feature. There’s still a shred of doubt in the latter, as we’re about to see, but in the former, it’s basically a sweep. I love it when the Oscars have drama, but this year there doesn’t seem to be all that much.

29th Critics’ Choice Awards
Best Picture – Oppenheimer
Best Director – Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Best Actor – Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Best Actress – Emma Stone – Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Best Young Actor/Actress – Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers
Best Acting Ensemble – Oppenheimer
Original Screenplay – Barbie
Adapted Screenplay – American Fiction
Cinematography – Oppenheimer
Editing – Oppenheimer
Costume Design – Barbie
Production Design – Barbie
Score – Oppenheimer
Song – “I’m Just Ken” – Barbie
Hair and Makeup – Barbie
Visual Effects – Oppenheimer
Best Comedy – Barbie
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Language Film – Anatomy of a Fall

There were basically three big winners here: Oppenheimer, Barbie, and The Holdovers. Part of this is because critics as a whole are more monolithic in their opinions. Part of it is just the lack of options. This wasn’t a terrible year for movies, but the cream quickly rose to the top across the board. The key things to look at here are wins for Barbie in Original Screenplay, which is likely either a protest vote for it being listed as Adapted by the Academy, or an example of why the film’s advocates were so adamant that it be nominated for Original, because it clearly would have better odds of a major victory. Emma Stone’s victory here is the only contest where she’s beaten Lily Gladstone directly (more on that in a moment), so it’s further intrigue for Best Actress. I would discount Paul Giamatti’s win, as this is his only victory outside the Golden Globes. It introduces only the slightest degree of doubt.

77th British Academy Film Awards
Best Film – Oppenheimer
Best Director – Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
Best Actor – Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Best Actress – Emma Stone – Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Original Screenplay – Anatomy of a Fall
Adapted Screenplay – American Fiction
Best Animated Film – The Boy and the Heron
Best Documentary – 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Film Not in the English Language – The Zone of Interest
Best Casting – The Holdovers
Cinematography – Oppenheimer
Costume Design – Poor Things
Editing – Oppenheimer
Makeup & Hair – Poor Things
Original Score – Oppenheimer
Production Design – Poor Things
Sound – The Zone of Interest
Visual Effects – Poor Things
Outstanding British Film – The Zone of Interest
Outstanding Debut – Earth Mama
Best British Animated Short – Crab Day
Best British Short Film – Jellyfish and Lobster
Rising Star Award – Mia McKenna-Bruce

The BAFTAs always like to think of themselves as more high-minded than our Academy, and as such things that have general mass appeal rarely do well. This is why Barbie has zero wins here, with every category where it might win at the Oscars either going to Poor Things or just not even existing (there’s no Original Song). This is also why, most likely, The Boy and the Heron won out over Spider-Verse. I certainly prefer it, but I know I’m in the minority on this one. There’s a lot of love for The Zone of Interest, which makes sense, as it was the UK’s submission to the Academy, and will almost certainly win International Feature. Emma Stone got Best Actress here, but pointedly, Lily Gladstone wasn’t even nominated. Given that Killers of the Flower Moon is up in almost all the other categories you’d expect – including Robert De Niro for Supporting Actor – you have to think that this omission was intentional to clear the way for Stone to win. There’s no other logical explanation, given that she’s up for every other major award, and has won a decent share. Finally, between this and the DGA, we have our best possible indication that 20 Days in Mariupol will win Documentary Feature, as it’s the only film nominated for the Oscar that has picked up any hardware apart from Four Daughters at the Spirits, where I think 20 Days wasn’t eligible (given that it’s produced by PBS and the Associated Press).

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I hope this rundown was both entertaining and informative. It certainly is for me. The fact that I get to have even an infinitesimal involvement in this process is just so cool, especially because it exposes me to more art and talent than I would otherwise see. We’ve got a week until the Main Event. Let’s hope it’s worth the wait.

Join the conversation in the comments below! How closely do you follow Awards Season results? Do they help you when making your Oscar picks? Who would you have voted for at the Spirits? Let me know! And remember, you can follow me on Twitter (fuck “X”) and YouTube for even more content!